Zambia Infrastructure Investment Economic Evaluation
The UK FCDO launched a campaign for Responsible Infrastructure Investment (RII), promoting economic appraisal in project development, competitive procurement, and transparent Public Investment Management processes. To support this campaign, DTS led a study examining Zambia’s transport infrastructure investments between 2010 and 2020.
The report, published in 2025, reveal that inefficient decisions may have cost the Zambian economy $7.2 billion. Of the $3.8 billion spent on 27 road projects, only 10 delivered positive economic benefits, while road maintenance spending fell by 75% to fund new construction.
The study offers important lessons. Projects that underwent formal economic appraisal contributed positively to the economy, demonstrating the value of evidence-based decision-making. Road maintenance delivered a benefit-cost ratio of 3.0, significantly outperforming new construction.
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Road Sector Reform in Nigeria
The World Bank’s Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project (RAAMP) (including funding from L’Agence Française de Dévelopement) is establishing Rural Access Road Authorities and Road Funds for all 36 States in Nigeria and one for the federal government. The objective is to establish a long-term sustainable funding source and institutional capacity to develop, maintain and manage climate-resilient roads that connect agricultural production to markets, processing/storage and to improve food security.
To support this process, DTS conducted extensive stakeholder interviews, confirmed the state road network and their maintenance needs, created the institutional development plans, developed the funding mechanisms, conducted economic and financial due diligence, supported the drafting of legal bills. DTS also provided support and guidance during the implementation and establishment of the Road Authorities. The Road Fund mechanism includes a hypothecated tax related to agricultural production.
Rwanda Urban Mobility Project: Kigali
The objective of the Rwanda Urban Mobility Project is to enhance public transport and NMT provision across Kigali through targeted investments, strengthening institutions to better plan and manage mobility, and by opening opportunities for private sector participation in financing and service provision. Investments include the development of a multi-modal transit terminal, enhancement of the public transport system, NMT, green mobility infrastructure, bus fleet renewal and e-mobility.
DTS conducted the socio-economic assessment of the investment options, provided strategic guidance considering macro and micro economic implications of transport investment decisions, and undertook value for money exercises. Economic and financial analysis of the program considered different demand and socio-economic scenarios. DTS advised the City of Kigali on proposed Public Partnership Projects (based on sound financial and economic analysis), reviewed the investment strategy, and provided recommendations for the implementation roadmap.
Trans-Gambia Bridge Monitoring & Evaluation
DTS conducted the economic and social impact evaluation of the Trans-Gambia Bridge (also known as the Senegambia Bridge), which opened in 2019 funded by the African Development Bank. The bridge replaces a ferry crossing and forms the lowest crossing of the River Gambia. It presents a key element of a long-distance transport corridor that links Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. The scientific approach combined analysis of “before-after” (longitudinal data) with a counterfactual. Therefore, surveys were conducted in the baseline (2014) and post-intervention (2025) at the project site and at two control sites.
Surveys included traffic volume, occupancy/load, travel time, household interviews, vehicle operating cost and focus groups. The evaluation identified the increase in economic exchanges in the transport corridor, growth in passenger travel, travel time and vehicle cost savings, safety improvements, improvement in local accessibility for education and healthcare, change in marketing opportunities especially for women, and the impact on household incomes and welfare. Modern data collection tools were deployed including smart survey apps using android tablets and smart phones.
Karachi BRT Institutional Reform & Financial Plan
The Government of Sindh, with the support of JICA and ADB, are implementing the Karachi Transportation Improvement Masterplan and associated projects. This includes developing a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) for the Yellow-Line BRT and feasibility studies for the Green- and Red-Line BRTs.
DTS supported this project by advising on institutional development and establishing the financial model. DTS developed business plans for the Sindh Mass Transit Authority and (SMTA) and the Sindh Bus Rapid Transit Company (SBRTC). DTS also performed capacity building for the financial administration and management of the system. The Financial and Economic Model was developed, which fed into the feasibility study for the BRT lines and informed the development of PPP schemes for the bankable components.
Tirana Public Transport Data Management & Visualization
DTS provided training to the Urban Transport Department of Tirana on the use of new datasets to inform the planning and management of public transport and to provide passenger information. The training focused on using QGIS to visualize and analyze data related to public transport supply, and demand, as well as how to create their own GTFS feeds to support analysis and passenger journey planning.
Training also covered the collection and analysis of new datasets to monitor the performance of the public transport network, the operators, and how passengers use the public transport system. Including visualization of the contracted network and accessibility modelling. Such analysis informs network optimization and helps to target bus priority infrastructure.
The capacity building activity supported the mayor’s plan to double the capacity of Tirana’s bus network and to introduce BRT.
Moldova Roads Rehabilitation V: Chisinau
As part of a feasibility study, DTS conducted the economic and financial appraisal for the upgrade of the Chisinau Ring Road (M2) and the Chisinau to Leuseni highway (M1). Funded by EBRD, these are TEN-T projects that are strategically critical for Moldova and respond to the European Union’s Economic and Investment Plan for Neighborhood East, and the Eastern Partnership priorities to strengthen core international transport links.
DTS provided technical assessment, demand forecasting, economic and financial analysis. Economic appraisal utilized procedures, and a HDM-4 model, and consistent with EBRD’s appraisal guidelines and EBRD’s Green Economic Transition (GET) analysis. The demand forecast included an assessment of the vehicle fleet considering trends in emissions and road safety. GHG and local air pollutants were modelled. Future scenarios were developed for the uptake of EVs. The appraisal considered climate change impacts and climate resilient design/management. Demand forecasts responded to alternative socio-economic scenarios.
Road Asset Management in Kyrgyz Republic
As part of the ADB-financed CAREC Corridors 1 and 3, The Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC) in Kyrgyzstan is implementing a Road Asset Management System (RAMS) that is fit for purpose, affordable and sustainable. Phase I of the project developed the RAMS software tool to provide a transparent approach to allocating budgets for road maintenance, rehabilitation and improvement. Phase II focuses on implementing, institutionalizing and automating the application of RAMS, such that it forms the basis for planning and budgeting for the road network in the Kyrgyz Republic.
DTS supported Phase II by developing and calibrating the HDM-4 model and overseeing its integration into the RAMS infrastructure. A key consideration was climate and hazard resilience related to the highly mountainous terrain. DTS also conducted program and strategy analysis to update the funding needs for the road network and advised on how to embed the use of RAMS within the institutional framework.
Uganda Inland Waterway Masterplan
DTS supported the development of a 25-year Inland Waterway Transport Masterplan and Development Strategy for Uganda focusing on Lake Victoria. For the UK Department for International Development’s program for Cities and Infrastructure for Growth (CIG). The masterplan integrates reliable, efficient, safe, and regular passenger services with landside networks, and promotes cargo services, tourism and fishing. The masterplan presents a strategy to attract public and private sector investment to support of local economic development – multiplier effects in business aim to create jobs and reduce poverty.
DTS developed a comprehensive and integrated package of investments. For the package and each element, DTS developed demand forecasts, assessed the change in travel patterns, developed costings and assessed life-cycle costs. Economic appraisal included wider economic benefits and the impact of improved economic inclusion for disadvantaged groups. The formulation of investment opportunities and a strategy for public sector involvement supported the financial appraisal.
Tirana Bus Revenue and Operating Cost Scenario Model
DTS developed a passenger demand, revenue and operating cost model for the network of 19 bus lines in Tirana. The model enables scenario testing of changes to the Level of Service and fare upon ridership, revenue and operating costs. Scenarios tested include alternative fares, headway and operating speed. The interplay between operating costs and revenue under each scenario helped to inform the approach taken by Tirana City to reform public transport provision across the city.
The model digests a year’s worth of historic data of patronage, service schedule and reliability by route, as well as detailed operating costs covering all aspects of fuel, maintenance, staff salaries, overheads, depreciation and tax. The model of passenger demand included elasticities With Respect To fare and level of service. Revenue included single and monthly pass tickets.
Nottingham & Derby Transforming Cities Fund Bid
DTS prepared the economic case for a UK Department for Transport Transforming Cities Fund bid for Nottingham City and Derby City Councils. The complete Business Case was produced by Integrated Transport Planning. The successful bid unlocked a £161m package of measures that improve transport connections to key employment sites and promote active transport and public transport. The measures include bus priority corridors with bus lanes, upgraded signals and junctions; Park and Ride; an electric Rapid Transit route (eRT); Real Time Passenger Information; Demand Responsive Transit to employers including Rolls Royce and Bombardier; e-ticket improvements; on-street bike hire scheme; cycle infrastructure upgrades; rapid EV charging points; and urban realm improvements.
DTS prepared the impact forecasts, conducted the economic appraisal for all elements, supported the financial case. DTS developed the economic case aligned with UK’s DfT’s Transport Advisory Guidance (TAG) and HMT Green Book, this forms a key part of the overall Strategic Business Case. The successful bid was the only one to receive the full amount requested from the UK Government.
Caribbean Infrastructure Fund, Independent Evaluation
The Caribbean Infrastructure Fund (UKCIF) is a £300m program for critical infrastructure investment across the Caribbean that supports climate resilience, economic growth and poverty reduction. The projects include roads, bridges, sea defense, seaports, airports, water, sanitation, wastewater, irrigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.
DTS conducted an independent evaluation of the program, specifically focused on the road sector. This covered delivery and impact. In terms of delivery, the progress and achievements of the program were reviewed including lessons learnt on the conditions for successful and sustainable completion of public infrastructure investments. In terms of impact, the contribution of the infrastructure to provide inclusive economic productivity and improved livelihoods, particularly of the poorest, was assessed. Climate resilience and network resilience to hazards was also assessed in light of rising sea levels, worsening storms and increasing temperature extremes.
Millennium Challenge Corporation Due Diligence Consultancy
The Millennium Challenge Corporation is currently engaged with the Governments of Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia in designing and implementing compacts in the roads sub-sector. DTS Ltd. is acting as the economics due diligence consultant.
