Zambia Infrastructure Investment Economic Evaluation

10 December 2025

$7.2 billion. That is what inefficient infrastructure decisions may have cost the Zambian economy.

Our new report, commissioned by UK FCDO as part of its Responsible Infrastructure Investment campaign, examines the transport infrastructure boom in Zambia between 2010 and 2020.

The findings are sobering:

• $3.8 billion was spent on 27 new or upgraded roads, but only 10 of these delivered positive economic benefits
• Road maintenance spending fell by 75% to help fund the new construction
• Most projects were financed through loans leaving the state with rising and unsustainable debt obligations
• The new airport at Ndola (SMKIA) is projected to lose $490 million in economic value

The detail within the study identifies some interesting lessons:

• Urban roads exhibit positive economic returns while district roads did not. The key variable is traffic. Higher baseline traffic, is likely to yield higher expected returns. But this is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee.
• Projects that underwent formal economic appraisal during the planning stages, were found to contribute positively to the economy, demonstrating the importance of evidence-based decision making to deliver infrastructure that works best for the economy.
• Road maintenance is estimated to deliver a Benefit-Cost Ratio of 3.0, far exceeding upgrades or new construction, therefore maintenance should be prioritised.

Infrastructure planning in Zambia has since turned a corner, with reforms underway such as the mandatory use of economic appraisals for project funding. But for any country facing choices between flagship projects and essential maintenance, or navigating debt-financed development, these findings offer an important reality check.

read the full report view more projects